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Projects: Projects for Investigator
Reference Number	NIA_WPD_065
Title	Demand Forecasting Encapsulating Domestic Efficiency Retrofits (DEFENDER)
Status	Completed
Energy Categories	Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy system analysis) 50%; Other Power and Storage Technologies(Electricity transmission and distribution) 50%;
Research Types	Applied Research and Development 100%
Science and Technology Fields	SOCIAL SCIENCES (Economics and Econometrics) 10%; PHYSICAL SCIENCES AND MATHEMATICS (Computer Science and Informatics) 20%; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering) 70%;
UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation	Sociological economical and environmental impact of energy 50%; Systems Analysis related to energy R&D 50%;
Principal Investigator	Project Contact No email address given Western Power Distribution (WPD) - East Midlands
Award Type	Network Innovation Allowance
Funding Source	Ofgem
Start Date	01 March 2022
End Date	31 March 2023
Duration	ENA months
Total Grant Value	£915,989
Industrial Sectors	Power
Region	East Midlands
Programme	Network Innovation Allowance
Investigators	Principal Investigator	Project Contact , Western Power Distribution (WPD) - East Midlands (99.997%)
	Other Investigator	Project Contact , Western Power Distribution (WPD) - South Wales (0.001%) Project Contact , Western Power Distribution (WPD) - South West (0.001%) Project Contact , Western Power Distribution (WPD) - West Midlands (0.001%)
	Industrial Collaborator	Project Contact , Western Power Distribution (0.000%)
Web Site	https://smarter.energynetworks.org/projects/NIA_WPD_065
Objectives	The DEFENDER project will develop, through two workstreams, the capability of electricity networks to accurately assess the impact of energy efficiency retrofits on current and future demand, and understanding of the business case for retrofit investment as an alternative to reinforcement.Workstream 0 – SpecificationThis workstream will carry out workshops with all project partners and WPD engineers to produce the specification for the Workstream 1 demand profiling tool and the Workstream 2 investment appraisal tool.Workstream 1 – Development of Pre- and Post-Retrofit Profiling ToolThis workstream will create an analysis tool capable of generating domestic ADMDs and load profiles based on actual heat data for a large number of property types for use in network forecasting and planning. This will be achieved through integrating a number of inputs:- A smart meter database of 15,000 homes gas and electricity consumption data owned by Hildebrand, a project partner.- Heat Transfer Coefficients (HTC) from the SMETERS project, which used BEIS validated algorithms to calculate building thermal performance from smart meter data.- A Building Decarbonisation Options Appraisal Tool developed by Carbon Trust, a project partner, which can determine the impact of retrofit measures on the buildings heat loss factor (U value).- The Energy Performance of Buildings Register, which contains EPCs for homes in England and Wales, which include heating and fabric data amongst other useful information.- Local weather data.The workstream will consist of the following work packages:WP1.1. Tool development part one: Pre- and post-retrofit demand ADMD and half-hourly profiles.This work package will develop the capability for simulating historical and future power demands, taking into account different energy efficiency measures. A model will be trained on the smart meter dataset to be capable of deriving before and after building fabric retrofit heat demand and quantify this as historical and future ADMD and load profiles, including transference of gas demand to electricity demand.WP1.2. Tool development part two: Network planning outputsThis work package will develop the capability for using machine learning techniques on the profiles developed in WP1 to cluster houses into housing archetypes and calculate mean annual load profiles and ADMDs for each archetype with and without energy efficiency measures.WP1.3. Testing of profiling toolThis work package will develop, agree and implement a system integration and user acceptance (UAT) process for the profiling tool between project partners. Following successful approval of the tool after testing, it will develop the necessary handover materials.WP1.4. Applying the profiling tool to DFES forecastingThis work package will define a methodology will be defined for applying the outputs of the profiling tool to Distribution Future Energy Scenario (DFES) modelling. The utility of the new profiles will then be analysed with a network case study. The outcomes of these studies will be compared and contrasted with WPDs existing forecasts using its current profiles and alternative approaches as identified by a literature review.WP1.5. Cost-benefit analysis of energy efficiency improvementThis work package will carry out a cost-benefit analysis of the value to network operators of investment in the energy efficiency of homes. This will be done in two ways: firstly by conducting a CBA of investment in energy efficiency per house archetype and the case study area in WP1.4, and secondly by transforming the outputs of the profiling tool into inputs to the retrofit investment tool developed in Workstream 2.Workstream 2 – Appraising Investment in Energy EfficiencyThis workstream will carry out an economic analysis of the business case and opportunities for WPD to promote energy efficiency retrofit. It will support this analysis with the creation of a tool for constraint management optioneering capable of assessing the value of energy efficiency retrofit, while accounting for the uncertainty in investment outcomes. This tool will be developed for a limited area of WPDs network, with a view to ensuring its building blocks are reusable as part of potential further economic analysis around energy efficiency.WP2.1. Development of investment appraisal toolThis work package will develop the economic assessment methodology and investment appraisal tool in R or Python in agile fashion, based on the specification document, with regular feedback to WPD and updates to the design document.WP2.2. Analysis and insightsThis work package will carry out an economic analysis using the investment appraisal tool to consider the conditions where the value from energy efficiency retrofits is most certain for electricity networks. It will evaluate the outputs of the investment appraisal tool and assess what the outcomes mean at various scales (e.g. strategic business plan level vs day-to-day operational) and will analyse the remaining knowledge gaps. It will capture the existing regulatory and commercial context for electricity networks on energy efficiency, assessing the possibilities within existing strictures and the opportunities that may develop in the future. Absent network monitoring on the HV and LV networks to provide measured load data, network loading is typically forecast using a profile class-based allocation method. Load growth due to LCT connections such as heat pumps is calculated from technology baselines and added to these profile classes. Traditional network connection costs are met by both the user and the DNO and its customers. As such, when connection assessments identify reinforcement needs, the costs to both increases. It is likely that current methods are overestimating these requirements by overstating the existing and future demand on these networks by not incorporating demand shifts due to energy efficiency retrofits.Incorporating real pre- and post-retrofit energy demand data, into network modelling will provide a more realistic picture of the current and future demand of domestic buildings. It is expected that these profiles will lower the overall forecast demand, both in maximum demand and in representative daily profiles. This would allow for significant cost saving in new connection and general reinforcement expenditure by reducing the need for both. In the long term, these savings can be passed along to customers in DUOS charge reductions. Savings may also be passed along to connection applicants and customers by reducing or eliminating reinforcement charges.Currently, within the RIIO-ED2 Business Plan it is projected in WPDs Best View that there will be an approximately increase in peak demand of more than 2GW, resulting in a primary and secondary reinforcement spend in ED2 of £635m, at a cost of approximately £318k per MW. Around 600k heat pumps are expected to be installed within the same period, increasing electrical demand from heating by approximately 1.8GW under current modelling estimates. A 6% reduction in this demand due to energy efficiency retrofit, as per a 2020 Committee on Climate Change study on residential heat decarbonisation trajectories, could result in an estimated £38m in reinforcement savings in ED2 alone. Develop an understanding of the electricity demand profile of UK domestic building stock pre- and post-retrofits to building fabric.Produce a methodology for integrating pre- and post-retrofit domestic demand profiles into network forecasting.Assess the potential savings on network reinforcement and flexibility from accounting for energy efficiency in demand forecasting.Perform an economic assessment of the potential benefits to networks from increased penetration of domestic retrofit interventions.
Abstract	Net Zero decarbonisation of domestic buildings will happen through low carbon heating, smart tariffs and energy efficiency retrofits of building fabric. The representation of the interactivity between these measures is limited in forecasting tools. Future demand, and network reinforcement requirements, may currently be overestimated. It is also unknown if there are opportunities for DNOs to promote energy efficiency as an alternative to reinforcement.DEFENDER will seek to address these issues through two workstreams. Workstream 1 will create an analysis tool capable of generating pre- and post-retrofit load profiles based on actual domestic data for use in network forecasting. Workstream 2 will carry out an economic analysis of opportunities for electricity networks to promote energy efficiency retrofit within current and future commercial and regulatory arrangements.
Publications	(none)
Final Report	(none)
Added to Database	14/10/22